Statistical/Fundamental Handicapping is the use of statistics, power ratings, and personnel match-ups to determine a selection. Statistical handicapping is crucial for the NFL, it does take a lot of the guess work out of handicapping and leaves little to no room for personal input.

Situational Handicapping is much more significant when making a college football bet than an NFL bet, primarily due to the age of the players, as college players are more prone to peaks and valleys. Situational Handicapping includes letdowns, look-aheads, revenge games and non-mathematical systems.Situational handicapping concentrates on how all teams have fared in a particular situation as opposed to just a particular team.

Technical/Trend- Based Handicapping generally carries less weight,it should never be the sole basis of making a wager.The easiest way to classify trend-based handicapping is to remember that trends are based on one particular team and how that team fares in different spots.

There is no right way or wrong way of handicapping, but there are right and wrong predictions.You could use a combination of 50-percent statistical Handicapping, 25-percent Situational Handicapping, and 25-percent trend-based Handicapping in deriving your selections or for the NFL you could use a 75-percent Statistical Handicapping, 15-percent Situational Handicapping, and 10-percent Trend-Based Handicapping. You could also try altering your handicapping techniques and see if your results improve.

To manage your bets you should buy or develop your own betting system and make your decisions as if you were operating a business in other words you are in for the long haul not just a short sprint.Sports betting systems refers to a set of events that when combined for a particular game for a particular sport represents a profitable betting scenario.

You could build your own system using statistical multiple regression using Microsoft excel or some other statistical program.The stronger the historical info you have the more accurate your results will be.Historical data you need to know to apply multiple regressions is: Wins, Losses, Win to Lose ratio, home game record, away game record, past ten game outcomes, win/loss streaks, injuries, team changes (new coach, loss of important player, etc.).You will never be able to call a game within 100% of accuracy but if you have the right info you are surely able to anticipate the game like the pros.

You could also buy an NFL handicapping system or use the internet to find free picks, there are many sites that offer 1 or more weekly free pick.Handicapping systems basically analyze sports books and the latest news on
NFL to provide picks. The answer to the question on whether there is an NFL handicapping system that works is yes, there are handicapping systems designed for the NFL that works but you need to remember that it isn’t entirely fool proof.Even if you use a very effective NFL handicapping system, you will still lose some time. You
need to remember that gambling is gambling and sometimes you will win while there are other times that you will lose.

NFL betting systems can effectively analyze statistics, it will not be able to analyze outside factors with regards to betting.You will want to try and do a little more research regarding the other factors that can affect that performance of a particular football team.

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The odd makers made it in such a way that the amount of money people win is less than the amount they make. Knowing how to win at sports betting will be the crucial step of making good earnings out of your bet.A good bettor should develop a betting system that will guide him on the ways that he can bet and win.

A bettor should use of the internet to find some of the major recommendations,gather information and conduct research which will enable him to bet on a winning team. You should have good knowledge on the game that you are betting on. If for example you are betting on football, you should have crucial information about the game, knowing of any injuries or which players will start could give you an advantage.

When you are placing a sports bet it is good to know that the amount of money you earn depends on the decision you make before you bet.Picking the team you think has all it takes to be winner will be crucial, to be successful you need to avoid big losses, bet more on sure things and less on long shots.

Sports betting puts excitement into the game and makes it more fun to watch, you should use betting as entertainment and not try to make a living at it. You should always bet only what you could afford to lose to keep it fun.

Most people are risk averse, therefore they like bets where a small amount results in a big win, that is why lottery tickets sell so well. In the world of sports betting a parlay bet is a bet where the odds could be as high as 600 to 1 or as low as 2 to 1 it depends on how many teams or games you include on your parlay card. For example on an NFL football parlay card choosing 2 games will pay 2.65 to 1 while choosing 5 games will pay 24 to 1. When playing a parlay style bet you must be right on all the games, one losing game and you lose the bet,the more games you add the more of a long shot it becomes usually picking 3 to 4 games gives reasonable odds and keeps it fun.

NFL sports betting is very popular since there are many types of straight bets, futures and propositions. NFL futures are also fun since they are also long shots, there are futures on who will win the superbowl, the championship and the division. The biggest odds are for the superbowl, if you pick a long shot say like Buffalo to win the superbowl the odds can be as high as 200 to 1, if you pick last year winner (Green Bay) the odds are as low as 6 to 1, or you could pick a team that is likely to win such as New York or Indianapolis and you get reasonable odds like 15 to 1.

You could pick 2 of your favorite teams to win the superbowl and place a futures bet on each team say $100 each and have fun watching the whole season if your team will make it, of course you will know by the middle of the season if your team still has a chance. You could place a future bet any time during the season but the odds change, if a team starts to look good early, by the mid season the odds will be say 8 to 1 instead of 16 to 1 as they were the beginning of the season.

NFL straight bets are also fun in addition to betting on a team you could also bet on the total score for a game, this is known as over/under, you are betting if the total score for a game will be over or under a given total. there are 2 kinds of straight NFL bets moneyline or against the spread, in moneyline if a team is +125 it means that it is the underdog and for every $100 you bet you win $125,if it states -$125 the it is the favorite and for every $125 you bet you win $100.

Sports betting makes your games more exciting to watch and gets you more involved in the sport since you are know doing more research, looking up statistics and following the teams more closely.like anything else betting is fun if you do not abuse it or over do it, it’s not your life just a small part of your life.

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Welcome to Submit Your Most Valuable Sports Pick of the Day @ ThatsMyBet.com
Voice your opinion by submitting your favourite sports pick of the day & help the TMB INDEX grow strong as a collective group.

TMB is comprised with some of the most consistent handicappers submitting their top sports picks of the day, free of charge!

If you play Pro Line in Ontario, or bet on ALC Pro Line in east coast Canada, or wager on sports online through an online sportsbook in the United States or even worldwide, the goal here is still the same… submit winning picks to help sports betting handicappers. Many Pro Line picks are universal &can be wagered on at many online sportsbooks in some form or another.

The TMB staff will be monitor & report on hot cappers & extended “Pick of the Day” win streaks. Tailing hot handicappers can be a great way to help build your sports betting bankroll. Showcase your sports handicapping talents by submitting your top pick of the day on events you are wagering on betting Pro Line or online sportsbook.

PLEASE READ RULES & GUIDELINES CAREFULLY :
- PLEASE SUBMIT ONLY ONE PICK PER DAY. ANY ADDITIONAL PICKS SUBMITTED WILL BE REMOVED WITHOUT NOTICE.

- SUBMIT YOUR TOP PICK PRIOR TO GAME START TIME.

- ANY SUBMITTED POST EDITED LATER THEN MAXIMUM OF 5 MINUTES PAST ORIGINAL TIME STAMP WILL NOT BE HONOURED.
-YOU MAY TRACK YOUR WIN/LOSS RECORD & CURRENT STREAK WITHIN YOUR POST

NOTE:

MEMBERS MAY TAIL ANOTHER MEMBERS PICK BUT IF THERE IS MULTIPLES OF THE SAME PICK, IT WILL COUNT AS 1 GAME.**
**MEANING, IF 10 MEMBERS POST A WINNING PICK FOR THE CANADIENS ML @ 1.65; THE TMB INDEX WILL BE 1-0 & NOT 10-0.

***PRO LINE V/H WIN BY 1 RESULTS ARE THE SAME AS A SPORTSBOOK MONEY LINE BET FOR THE SAME SELECTED TEAM.

SPORTSBOOK PICKS & PRO LINE PICKS SUBMITTED WITH THE SAME RESULT WILL COUNT AS 1 GAME TOWARDS THE INDEX.

*PLEASE POST WHETHER SUBMITTING A PRO LINE PICK OR ONLINE SPORTSBOOK PICK

*PLEASE SUBMIT THE SPORTS LEAGUE BEING WAGERED ON

*PLEASE SUBMIT THE TEAMS/PLAYERS/PROP BEING WAGERED ON

*PLEASE STATE YOUR BET. PLEASE STATE IF YOU BUY POINTS TO YOUR BET

*STATE THE ODDS OR WAGER PRICE LINE. DECIMAL (2.05) AND/OR AMERICAN STYLE (+1.05)

EXAMPLES OF PERMITTED SUBMITTED PICKS :

EXAMPLE #1

WAGER TYPE : OLG Pro Line Game List

SPORTS LEAGUE : National Hockey League (NHL)

BETTING EVENT : Ottawa Senators @ Montreal Canadiens

MY PICK OF THE DAY : Montreal Canadiens @ 1.65

EXAMPLE #2

WAGER TYPE : Online Sportsbook Point Spread – Against the Spread (ATS)

SPORTS LEAGUE : National Football League (NFL)

BETTING EVENT : Miami Dolphins @ Baltimore Ravens

MY PICK OF THE DAY : Baltimore Ravens -3.5 @ +100 (2.00)

EXAMPLE #3

WAGER TYPE : OLG Pro Line Pro Picks Props

SPORTS LEAGUE : NFL Pro Line Props

BETTING EVENT : Drew Brees, NWO O/U Totals 28.5 Completions

MY PICK OF THE DAY : Drew Brees, NWO TOTAL OVER 28.5 COMPS @ 1.70

EXAMPLE #4

WAGER TYPE : Online Sportsbook Money Line

SPORTS LEAGUE : Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC)

BETTING EVENT : UFC 135 : Georges St. Pierre vs Anderson Silva

MY PICK OF THE DAY : Georges St. Pierre Win Money Line @ 1.90

WAGERING TYPES PERMITTED FOR SUBMISSION :

Pro Line picks from all over Canada (ALC, Sports Action, Sport Select, etc…)

Canadian Pro Line Game List Picks

Canadian Pro Line Point Spread Picks

OLG Pro Line NFL Props Picks

Online Sportsbook Money Line picks from major sports leagues

Online Sportsbook Over/Under Totals picks from any major sports leagues

Online Sportsbook Point Spread from any major sports leagues

Online Sportsbook Buy Points for any major sports leagues

Online Sportsbook Puck Line for NHL Hockey Betting

Teasers, If Bets, Live In-Play, Future Bets, Online Props & obscure wagering types ARE NOT permitted & will be removed.

PERMITTED MAJOR LEAGUES

National Football League (NFL)
National Hockey League (NHL)
National Basketball Association (NBA)
Major League Baseball (MLB)
Canadian Football League (CFL)
Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC)
NCAA College Basketball (NCAA CBK)
NCAA College Football (NCAA CFB)
English Premier League Soccer (EPL)
Italian Serie A Soccer (ITA)
Spanish La Liga Primera Soccer (SPA)
France La Ligue Soccer (FRA)
Germany Bundesliga Soccer (GER)
Scotland Premier League Soccer (SCO)
USA Major League Soccer (MLS)
UEFA Champions League & Europa Cup (UEFA)

*TMB MOST VALUABLE PICKS ARE BASED ON A FIRST COME, FIRST SERVE BASIS. IF THERE IS BOTH SIDES OF A GAME/EVENT SUBMITTED, ONLY THE EARLIEST PICK WILL COUNT TOWARDS THE TMB INDEX COUNTER. THE EARLIER YOU ARE ABLE TO SUBMIT YOUR TOP PICK OF THE DAY, THE BETTER CHANCE OF SECURING YOUR DESIRED GAME/EVENT WAGER.

**DO NOT POST OUTBOUND LINKS WITHIN THIS THREAD. ALL LINKS WILL BE REMOVED & MEMBERS DEALT ACCORDINGLY.

***ONLY PICKS FROM FORUM MEMBERS RANKED ROOKIES & HIGHER WILL COUNT TOWARDS THE TMB INDEX.

****EACH SUMBITTED PICK WILL BE GRADED BY RESULTS FROM THE WAGER TYPE STATED (PRO LINE OR SPORTSBOOK)

The TMB INDEX records will be updated each day. Wins & Losses will be counted towards the INDEX.

Good Luck Team

NFL Against the Spread Picks

The NFL is truly the most popular sport in the United States. There are many reasons for this but that is not what is important. What is important because the NFL is so popular and tempting to wager on that many fans will not wait till opening day in September to start their football betting. Many fans will start betting in NFL games as soon as the NFL preseason starts. It is important preseason or not that you follow a football betting system.

Now if you are one those who loves the NFL so much that you will probably start betting in the preseason then there are a few tings you need to understand. Betting NFL preseason is very different than betting regular season games. We all know these are exhibition games where many unknown players are getting large amounts of play so the coaching staff can decide the fate of the player. This scares some people away from betting because they are not familiar with the unknown players. You can still make money on the preseason games but you must change your handicapping approach.

In the regular season the philosophy is that the best team shall win the games. This may not apply in preseason ball. When making football picks you need to research and discover which teams put more emphasis on winning and which teams traditionally fail to win preseason games. Let me give you an example.

Coach Jack Del Rio of the Jacksonville Jaguars is 18-10 straight up and 17-11 against the spread in preseason. Unfortunately last year in 2009, the Jags were just 1-3 straight up but only lost by a total combined 5 points in those 3 losses. Since Del Rio has been coaching the Jaguars they have always played well and usually win their preseason games. As a dog in the preseason the Jaguars are nearly perfect. Factor in that the Jaguars lost and failed to cover the last 4 games of the 2009 regular season makes them an interesting team to look at when the 2010 preseason starts.

To some coaches the preseason is about starting a winning streak and creating a winning atmosphere. Other coaches will lose the game simply because they are determined in playing weak unknown talent rather then make a few simple player adjustments to win the game. It comes down to just how important is it for a certain coaching staff to win a preseason game or to play their unknown players regardless if they can win or not.

New team coaches usually are eager to get that first win. Many times a new coach will make the first preseason game a priority to win in order to start a winning mentality. We have 3 teams with new coaches this coming 2010 season. The Washington Redskins with Mike Shanahan, the Seattle Seahawks with Pete Carroll and at last the Buffalo Bills with Chan Gailey. Look for these new coaches to make winning that first preseason a priority over everything else.

The Jacksonville Jaguars were a playoff wining team back in 2007 but since then there has not been much to cheer about. Detroit may hold the honors for the team with the most straight up losses over the last two seasons but if you are betting on the Jaguars to cover point spreads then you are probably losing your money.

Over the last two NFL seasons the Jaguars are 12-20 straight up and 9-23 against the spread. The last two seasons the Jaguars have the worst record against the spread. That 9-23 mark means they only cover 2 out 5 games or 39%. The NFL average last season was 49.8% and the medium at 50%. The Jaguars are no where near that average number. In today’s NFL where parity is common with most teams around the 500 mark it is hard to imagine that a team talented as the Jaguars, fail to cover the spread so often.

What really make this so strange is that over the last two seasons the Jaguars were only outscored by an average of 4.8 points. Compare that to Detroit Lions who over the last two seasons were outscored by an average of 15.1 points per game. The Jaguars have taking some heavy beatings over the last two seasons losing many games by more than 15 points. When they win it usually is a close game. The Jaguars also lost the last four games straight up and against the spread last season.

It is safe to imagine the Jaguars are in a critical point right now. Another season like 2009 and you probably see a coaching change and several player transactions. Way things look it’s a risky move to bet on the Jaguars come September. The pressure they will face to get off to a respectable start is great. I would imagine if they experience a few close losses early that the whole season could fall apart.

The Jaguars are on team that will not be part of my September football picks as I plan on just observing for the first month of play to see just how they adjust to the situation. When it comes to my football betting system certain teams that I feel are in a desperate situation I will usually avoid

I reside in Las Vegas where football betting is not only legal but an important part of our local economy. There are numerous sports books all over town and come this fall on Sundays they all will be packed with people. Just about everybody has a favorite NFL team and they usually will want to wager on that team.

There are many professional sports handicappers that will sell you their picks. You can purchase their preferred plays individually or in a package deal. They claim to have that extra something that produces you a winning pick. They also can charge a high price for their service. I am always amazed by just home many people use these services over and over again. Would it not be nice if you could have their handicapping system then you could determine the winning plays and not cough up money every week to get their football picks.

Most football betting systems include team power ratings, historical data and current trends to select the winning side. Now there are many different formulas to use in calculating power rating. None are perfect they are just used to give the handicapper some idea how the teams currently rank. Other factors like game location, injuries and revenge factors are hard to figure into power ratings. You not need to figure out your own power ratings as there are many posted from various sports sites. For the most part they all have similar numbers. When things begin to change is when you apply all the variables to the ratings.

Every match up has variables that can not be overlooked. As a football handicapper you need to apply injuries, past match ups, home field advantage and motivational factors to your power ratings. Some teams handle injuries better than others so you must be knowledgeable about backup players. Consider all past meetings the two teams have had recently. Revenge is huge in sports. Some teams are nearly unbeatable at home. You need to examine if their stadium is unique and creates a great advantage over other stadiums. Then there is the motivational factor. Some teams are in a trap within their schedule that affects their play. For example teams that lose on Monday Night Football on the road now have a short week to take the field again come Sunday. Always consider the games prior to and after the week of football you are handicapping. Power Ratings are a necessity but do not handicap by powers rating alone.

This is just small taste what an effectiveFootball betting system contains. You never want to over analyze any part of the game but you must be aware of all the variables and how they relate to that match up.

Now is a perfect time to start handicapping football. Sure we are a long way from opening day but there have been many changes to NFL teams everywhere. Now is a good time to look back see which coaches changed teams or just left the game. Players have been traded and their will be teams will completely different styles of play coming this fall.

Before I get started talking about the new coaching changes let me say that in order to consistently win money handicapping football you need to follow a football betting system. Whatever you do this coming season please follow a system based on valid statistics and trends. Do not just bet your favorite teams and bet against the teams you dislike. Alright now let’s talk some about some coaching changes.

Unless you live under a rock you are probably well aware that the Washington Redskins fired Jim Zorn, hired Mike Shanahan and traded for Donovan McNabb. Former Redskin QB Jason Campbell is now an Oakland Raider. This is old news now, some like it, some say doesn’t matter. The one thing is for sure that at the Washington Redskins will get plenty of coverage and are major topic so far of many sports talk shows. Personally, I love this move but what I want to emphasize is since this move has gotten so much media attention we tend to overlook the other coaching changes.

Did you realize that 2 other teams have new coaches as well? Maybe you are aware that the Seattle Seahawks fired Jim Mora replacing him with Pete Carroll from University of Southern California. Most speculated that Carroll would leave college football for the NFL someday so this was not a shocker. It is sad that Jim Mora only got one season as head coach with the Seahawks however the decision to clean house was made as the Seahawks also have a new GM in John Schneider. The life of an NFL coach is not always easy nor is it fair.

The last team to change coaches is the Buffalo Bills. This one you may not be aware of as this is third coach in the last year and you may just not care to follow it anymore. You may recall Dick Jauron was head coach the start of last season. He was fired from that position on November 17, 2009 as the bills were just 3-6 and not looking like a playoff team. Defensive Coordinator Perry Fewell was named interim head coach. The Bills finished the season 6-10. Fewell was replaced with Chan Gailey. Gailey’s last job was offensive coordinator for the Kansas City Chiefs. He was dismissed from that position last August just 2 weeks before opening day. Before that he was the head coach at Georgia Tech. where he went 44-33 before being fired in 2007. Before that you probably remember him most as the Dallas Cowboys head coach. He went 18-14 as Cowboys head coach and was fired at the end of the season in 1999. With some of the well know coaching names out there I was surprised to the Bills hire Gailey. Funny, the Bills seem to always hire either unknown coaches or coaches who are at the end of their career. Bill Cowher would have been an awesome move for the Bills, oh well.

There you have it, the coaching changes for the 2010 NFL season. Not that many change’s this off season but all should have great impacts on their prospective teams. I personally like to pay close attention to teams with new coached to see what changes are being made with the roster and assistant coaches. I expect much change for all 3 teams

information. He has several other well known handicappers who are part of his sports betting service. They are fine handicappers. They know there sports and they know how to make money betting sports. For a fee they will share their knowledge with you. There are numerous packagers and plans you can purchase and gain their inside access to the world of sports betting. But what if you are seeking an alternative route to achieve winning selections. A method in which you would not need to purchase these expensive selections but come up with you own winning sports plays. Would you be interested?

Jim Feist is like many Las Vegas sports handicappers. They work hard and most of all they have a proven winning system in place. This system gives them the plays they sell to you. This betting system is the base of their business. Professional handicappers like Jim Feist will sell you all the selections you could ever want but don’t expect them to sell you their system that produces these winning plays.

To obtain a proven sports betting system you need to either create one yourself of purchase one from someone who know what they are doing. Creating your own system can be very time consuming. You need to take in account of all the necessary stats, current and past. Then you need to consider performance trends, weather conditions and several other variables. Once you have all this together and able to create mathematical formula based on the betting line, then you are ready to test your new system. To accurately test a betting system you will need to play it over a course of a full season and examine how much you profit. Remember a good system just does not work for a short stint but consistently over a season.

The easier way to get your hands a proven winning sports selection system is to purchase one. Now be careful there are many systems that make outrageous claims. Some even say that they hit over 90 percent winners. Think again, if that was true sports books would go out of business. No, an honest and effective sports betting method will achieve a win rate about 60 to 70 percent. That is good enough, along with proper money management to earn a nice profit over a course of a season. There is no such thing as a sure thing, so money management is crucial in sports betting. If you are looking for such a winning system make sure you follow it properly and take it one game at a time.

A word of warning, all this can sometimes prove useless when there is an upset in the results – which usually can happen at any time in this game. The history of the game has a good amount of proof of such upsets. Hence, there is always an element of uncertainty in football bets, which makes it all the much more exciting and interesting to people.

You can find certain issues that help you to make winning calls and to master them; make sure you commit adequate time to learn the aspects of the game of football, the current season, and the attributes of sports reporters. You can get enough materials to study the views of experts as the game is followed by most people and there is no dearth of current information from critics, analysts, and journalists. You can get started on a study of the present condition of teams and players so that you can make successful football betting.

Planning of wagering football bets

Make sure you take up the study of the current state of the game relating to the players’ transfers and the composition of new teams that are anticipated to participate in competitive games. Enquire about the training and coaching specifications and find out the personalities of the teams’ coaches, managers, and their careers. You should expect positive results from eminent coaches and managers and place your wager in their favor. This tends to work as a pointer, and you may find a profitable outcome to your bets this way.

Wagering of football bets

You will have to go through some anxiety when you make your bets in the new season, because of the unknown situation of teams and their actual potential with the new formation of the football team. It’s important to depend on the expertise of the bookie or the gambling house to make your investments at this phase. You may feel it exciting and full of fun, but your football bet may end in total loss for you if you place them casually.

It is smart to be cautious at first of the football season to avoid large investments in unnecessary risk. It is best to exercise caution on the football bets given, by studying the advantages and disadvantages of the present situation of the game.

The conclusion can be drawn that if you want to make good income of your investment, you should place your wager based on the conditions until you are able to judge them accurately yourself. Therefore, your football bets needs to be made on the current evaluation of the teams and their current form, which may draw a good result for your risk.