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When it comes to football handicapping, there are three essential factors that go into making a sports bet,they are Statistical, Situational, and Trend- Based handicapping.

Statistical/Fundamental Handicapping is the use of statistics, power ratings, and personnel match-ups to determine a selection. Statistical handicapping is crucial for the NFL, it does take a lot of the guess work out of handicapping and leaves little to no room for personal input.

Situational Handicapping is much more significant when making a college football bet than an NFL bet, primarily due to the age of the players, as college players are more prone to peaks and valleys. Situational Handicapping includes letdowns, look-aheads, revenge games and non-mathematical systems.Situational handicapping concentrates on how all teams have fared in a particular situation as opposed to just a particular team.

Technical/Trend- Based Handicapping generally carries less weight,it should never be the sole basis of making a wager.The easiest way to classify trend-based handicapping is to remember that trends are based on one particular team and how that team fares in different spots.

There is no right way or wrong way of handicapping, but there are right and wrong predictions.You could use a combination of 50-percent statistical Handicapping, 25-percent Situational Handicapping, and 25-percent trend-based Handicapping in deriving your selections or for the NFL you could use a 75-percent Statistical Handicapping, 15-percent Situational Handicapping, and 10-percent Trend-Based Handicapping. You could also try altering your handicapping techniques and see if your results improve.

To manage your bets you should buy or develop your own betting system and make your decisions as if you were operating a business in other words you are in for the long haul not just a short sprint.Sports betting systems refers to a set of events that when combined for a particular game for a particular sport represents a profitable betting scenario.

You could build your own system using statistical multiple regression using Microsoft excel or some other statistical program.The stronger the historical info you have the more accurate your results will be.Historical data you need to know to apply multiple regressions is: Wins, Losses, Win to Lose ratio, home game record, away game record, past ten game outcomes, win/loss streaks, injuries, team changes (new coach, loss of important player, etc.).You will never be able to call a game within 100% of accuracy but if you have the right info you are surely able to anticipate the game like the pros.

You could also buy an NFL handicapping system or use the internet to find free picks, there are many sites that offer 1 or more weekly free pick.Handicapping systems basically analyze sports books and the latest news on
NFL to provide picks. The answer to the question on whether there is an NFL handicapping system that works is yes, there are handicapping systems designed for the NFL that works but you need to remember that it isn’t entirely fool proof.Even if you use a very effective NFL handicapping system, you will still lose some time. You
need to remember that gambling is gambling and sometimes you will win while there are other times that you will lose.

NFL betting systems can effectively analyze statistics, it will not be able to analyze outside factors with regards to betting.You will want to try and do a little more research regarding the other factors that can affect that performance of a particular football team.

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When placing a sports bet,you should have knowledge of the participating odds on the game you want to bet.Betting is a game where the chances of winning are less than the chances of losing.

The odd makers made it in such a way that the amount of money people win is less than the amount they make. Knowing how to win at sports betting will be the crucial step of making good earnings out of your bet.A good bettor should develop a betting system that will guide him on the ways that he can bet and win.

A bettor should use of the internet to find some of the major recommendations,gather information and conduct research which will enable him to bet on a winning team. You should have good knowledge on the game that you are betting on. If for example you are betting on football, you should have crucial information about the game, knowing of any injuries or which players will start could give you an advantage.

When you are placing a sports bet it is good to know that the amount of money you earn depends on the decision you make before you bet.Picking the team you think has all it takes to be winner will be crucial, to be successful you need to avoid big losses, bet more on sure things and less on long shots.

Sports betting puts excitement into the game and makes it more fun to watch, you should use betting as entertainment and not try to make a living at it. You should always bet only what you could afford to lose to keep it fun.

Most people are risk averse, therefore they like bets where a small amount results in a big win, that is why lottery tickets sell so well. In the world of sports betting a parlay bet is a bet where the odds could be as high as 600 to 1 or as low as 2 to 1 it depends on how many teams or games you include on your parlay card. For example on an NFL football parlay card choosing 2 games will pay 2.65 to 1 while choosing 5 games will pay 24 to 1. When playing a parlay style bet you must be right on all the games, one losing game and you lose the bet,the more games you add the more of a long shot it becomes usually picking 3 to 4 games gives reasonable odds and keeps it fun.

NFL sports betting is very popular since there are many types of straight bets, futures and propositions. NFL futures are also fun since they are also long shots, there are futures on who will win the superbowl, the championship and the division. The biggest odds are for the superbowl, if you pick a long shot say like Buffalo to win the superbowl the odds can be as high as 200 to 1, if you pick last year winner (Green Bay) the odds are as low as 6 to 1, or you could pick a team that is likely to win such as New York or Indianapolis and you get reasonable odds like 15 to 1.

You could pick 2 of your favorite teams to win the superbowl and place a futures bet on each team say $100 each and have fun watching the whole season if your team will make it, of course you will know by the middle of the season if your team still has a chance. You could place a future bet any time during the season but the odds change, if a team starts to look good early, by the mid season the odds will be say 8 to 1 instead of 16 to 1 as they were the beginning of the season.

NFL straight bets are also fun in addition to betting on a team you could also bet on the total score for a game, this is known as over/under, you are betting if the total score for a game will be over or under a given total. there are 2 kinds of straight NFL bets moneyline or against the spread, in moneyline if a team is +125 it means that it is the underdog and for every $100 you bet you win $125,if it states -$125 the it is the favorite and for every $125 you bet you win $100.

Sports betting makes your games more exciting to watch and gets you more involved in the sport since you are know doing more research, looking up statistics and following the teams more closely.like anything else betting is fun if you do not abuse it or over do it, it’s not your life just a small part of your life.

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NFL Picks

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THE #1 ONLINE SPORTS BETTING PICKS SERVICE & SPORTS BETTING PICKS FORUM

REAL HANDICAPPERS. REAL PICKS. REAL WINNERS. WE COME. WE PLAY. WE WIN!

Welcome to Submit Your Most Valuable Sports Pick of the Day @ ThatsMyBet.com
Voice your opinion by submitting your favourite sports pick of the day & help the TMB INDEX grow strong as a collective group.

TMB is comprised with some of the most consistent handicappers submitting their top sports picks of the day, free of charge!

If you play Pro Line in Ontario, or bet on ALC Pro Line in east coast Canada, or wager on sports online through an online sportsbook in the United States or even worldwide, the goal here is still the same… submit winning picks to help sports betting handicappers. Many Pro Line picks are universal &can be wagered on at many online sportsbooks in some form or another.

The TMB staff will be monitor & report on hot cappers & extended “Pick of the Day” win streaks. Tailing hot handicappers can be a great way to help build your sports betting bankroll. Showcase your sports handicapping talents by submitting your top pick of the day on events you are wagering on betting Pro Line or online sportsbook.

PLEASE READ RULES & GUIDELINES CAREFULLY :
- PLEASE SUBMIT ONLY ONE PICK PER DAY. ANY ADDITIONAL PICKS SUBMITTED WILL BE REMOVED WITHOUT NOTICE.

- SUBMIT YOUR TOP PICK PRIOR TO GAME START TIME.

- ANY SUBMITTED POST EDITED LATER THEN MAXIMUM OF 5 MINUTES PAST ORIGINAL TIME STAMP WILL NOT BE HONOURED.
-YOU MAY TRACK YOUR WIN/LOSS RECORD & CURRENT STREAK WITHIN YOUR POST

NOTE:

MEMBERS MAY TAIL ANOTHER MEMBERS PICK BUT IF THERE IS MULTIPLES OF THE SAME PICK, IT WILL COUNT AS 1 GAME.**
**MEANING, IF 10 MEMBERS POST A WINNING PICK FOR THE CANADIENS ML @ 1.65; THE TMB INDEX WILL BE 1-0 & NOT 10-0.

***PRO LINE V/H WIN BY 1 RESULTS ARE THE SAME AS A SPORTSBOOK MONEY LINE BET FOR THE SAME SELECTED TEAM.

SPORTSBOOK PICKS & PRO LINE PICKS SUBMITTED WITH THE SAME RESULT WILL COUNT AS 1 GAME TOWARDS THE INDEX.

*PLEASE POST WHETHER SUBMITTING A PRO LINE PICK OR ONLINE SPORTSBOOK PICK

*PLEASE SUBMIT THE SPORTS LEAGUE BEING WAGERED ON

*PLEASE SUBMIT THE TEAMS/PLAYERS/PROP BEING WAGERED ON

*PLEASE STATE YOUR BET. PLEASE STATE IF YOU BUY POINTS TO YOUR BET

*STATE THE ODDS OR WAGER PRICE LINE. DECIMAL (2.05) AND/OR AMERICAN STYLE (+1.05)

EXAMPLES OF PERMITTED SUBMITTED PICKS :

EXAMPLE #1

WAGER TYPE : OLG Pro Line Game List

SPORTS LEAGUE : National Hockey League (NHL)

BETTING EVENT : Ottawa Senators @ Montreal Canadiens

MY PICK OF THE DAY : Montreal Canadiens @ 1.65

EXAMPLE #2

WAGER TYPE : Online Sportsbook Point Spread – Against the Spread (ATS)

SPORTS LEAGUE : National Football League (NFL)

BETTING EVENT : Miami Dolphins @ Baltimore Ravens

MY PICK OF THE DAY : Baltimore Ravens -3.5 @ +100 (2.00)

EXAMPLE #3

WAGER TYPE : OLG Pro Line Pro Picks Props

SPORTS LEAGUE : NFL Pro Line Props

BETTING EVENT : Drew Brees, NWO O/U Totals 28.5 Completions

MY PICK OF THE DAY : Drew Brees, NWO TOTAL OVER 28.5 COMPS @ 1.70

EXAMPLE #4

WAGER TYPE : Online Sportsbook Money Line

SPORTS LEAGUE : Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC)

BETTING EVENT : UFC 135 : Georges St. Pierre vs Anderson Silva

MY PICK OF THE DAY : Georges St. Pierre Win Money Line @ 1.90

WAGERING TYPES PERMITTED FOR SUBMISSION :

Pro Line picks from all over Canada (ALC, Sports Action, Sport Select, etc…)

Canadian Pro Line Game List Picks

Canadian Pro Line Point Spread Picks

OLG Pro Line NFL Props Picks

Online Sportsbook Money Line picks from major sports leagues

Online Sportsbook Over/Under Totals picks from any major sports leagues

Online Sportsbook Point Spread from any major sports leagues

Online Sportsbook Buy Points for any major sports leagues

Online Sportsbook Puck Line for NHL Hockey Betting

Teasers, If Bets, Live In-Play, Future Bets, Online Props & obscure wagering types ARE NOT permitted & will be removed.

PERMITTED MAJOR LEAGUES

National Football League (NFL)
National Hockey League (NHL)
National Basketball Association (NBA)
Major League Baseball (MLB)
Canadian Football League (CFL)
Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC)
NCAA College Basketball (NCAA CBK)
NCAA College Football (NCAA CFB)
English Premier League Soccer (EPL)
Italian Serie A Soccer (ITA)
Spanish La Liga Primera Soccer (SPA)
France La Ligue Soccer (FRA)
Germany Bundesliga Soccer (GER)
Scotland Premier League Soccer (SCO)
USA Major League Soccer (MLS)
UEFA Champions League & Europa Cup (UEFA)

*TMB MOST VALUABLE PICKS ARE BASED ON A FIRST COME, FIRST SERVE BASIS. IF THERE IS BOTH SIDES OF A GAME/EVENT SUBMITTED, ONLY THE EARLIEST PICK WILL COUNT TOWARDS THE TMB INDEX COUNTER. THE EARLIER YOU ARE ABLE TO SUBMIT YOUR TOP PICK OF THE DAY, THE BETTER CHANCE OF SECURING YOUR DESIRED GAME/EVENT WAGER.

**DO NOT POST OUTBOUND LINKS WITHIN THIS THREAD. ALL LINKS WILL BE REMOVED & MEMBERS DEALT ACCORDINGLY.

***ONLY PICKS FROM FORUM MEMBERS RANKED ROOKIES & HIGHER WILL COUNT TOWARDS THE TMB INDEX.

****EACH SUMBITTED PICK WILL BE GRADED BY RESULTS FROM THE WAGER TYPE STATED (PRO LINE OR SPORTSBOOK)

The TMB INDEX records will be updated each day. Wins & Losses will be counted towards the INDEX.

Good Luck Team

NFL Against the Spread Picks

The NFL preseason can be very profitable to wager on. However many betters have no clue how to wager a NFL preseason football game. Many times football betters treat the preseason like the regular season and lose. Betting preseason football is entirely different than betting on a regular season game.

The NFL is truly the most popular sport in the United States. There are many reasons for this but that is not what is important. What is important because the NFL is so popular and tempting to wager on that many fans will not wait till opening day in September to start their football betting. Many fans will start betting in NFL games as soon as the NFL preseason starts. It is important preseason or not that you follow a football betting system.

Now if you are one those who loves the NFL so much that you will probably start betting in the preseason then there are a few tings you need to understand. Betting NFL preseason is very different than betting regular season games. We all know these are exhibition games where many unknown players are getting large amounts of play so the coaching staff can decide the fate of the player. This scares some people away from betting because they are not familiar with the unknown players. You can still make money on the preseason games but you must change your handicapping approach.

In the regular season the philosophy is that the best team shall win the games. This may not apply in preseason ball. When making football picks you need to research and discover which teams put more emphasis on winning and which teams traditionally fail to win preseason games. Let me give you an example.

Coach Jack Del Rio of the Jacksonville Jaguars is 18-10 straight up and 17-11 against the spread in preseason. Unfortunately last year in 2009, the Jags were just 1-3 straight up but only lost by a total combined 5 points in those 3 losses. Since Del Rio has been coaching the Jaguars they have always played well and usually win their preseason games. As a dog in the preseason the Jaguars are nearly perfect. Factor in that the Jaguars lost and failed to cover the last 4 games of the 2009 regular season makes them an interesting team to look at when the 2010 preseason starts.

To some coaches the preseason is about starting a winning streak and creating a winning atmosphere. Other coaches will lose the game simply because they are determined in playing weak unknown talent rather then make a few simple player adjustments to win the game. It comes down to just how important is it for a certain coaching staff to win a preseason game or to play their unknown players regardless if they can win or not.

New team coaches usually are eager to get that first win. Many times a new coach will make the first preseason game a priority to win in order to start a winning mentality. We have 3 teams with new coaches this coming 2010 season. The Washington Redskins with Mike Shanahan, the Seattle Seahawks with Pete Carroll and at last the Buffalo Bills with Chan Gailey. Look for these new coaches to make winning that first preseason a priority over everything else.

When asked what is the worst to NFL when it comes to football betting most people probably can help but think of the Detroit Lions. True they almost always have the worst record in the league but that doesn’t mean they don’t cover the spread from time to time. It is also true the Lions went winless in 2008 as they only covered 2 of 16 games last season against the spread. Despite all this the Jacksonville Jaguars over the last two seasons have the worst team to wager on.

The Jacksonville Jaguars were a playoff wining team back in 2007 but since then there has not been much to cheer about. Detroit may hold the honors for the team with the most straight up losses over the last two seasons but if you are betting on the Jaguars to cover point spreads then you are probably losing your money.

Over the last two NFL seasons the Jaguars are 12-20 straight up and 9-23 against the spread. The last two seasons the Jaguars have the worst record against the spread. That 9-23 mark means they only cover 2 out 5 games or 39%. The NFL average last season was 49.8% and the medium at 50%. The Jaguars are no where near that average number. In today’s NFL where parity is common with most teams around the 500 mark it is hard to imagine that a team talented as the Jaguars, fail to cover the spread so often.

What really make this so strange is that over the last two seasons the Jaguars were only outscored by an average of 4.8 points. Compare that to Detroit Lions who over the last two seasons were outscored by an average of 15.1 points per game. The Jaguars have taking some heavy beatings over the last two seasons losing many games by more than 15 points. When they win it usually is a close game. The Jaguars also lost the last four games straight up and against the spread last season.

It is safe to imagine the Jaguars are in a critical point right now. Another season like 2009 and you probably see a coaching change and several player transactions. Way things look it’s a risky move to bet on the Jaguars come September. The pressure they will face to get off to a respectable start is great. I would imagine if they experience a few close losses early that the whole season could fall apart.

The Jaguars are on team that will not be part of my September football picks as I plan on just observing for the first month of play to see just how they adjust to the situation. When it comes to my football betting system certain teams that I feel are in a desperate situation I will usually avoid